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Britain's withdrawal from the EU --- there is no chaos but more chaos

2018-12-17 04:31| 发布者: admin| 查看: 215| 评论: 0

摘要: Sterling's short-term sharp fluctuations have become almost normal in recent months, but last week's situation brought them back to a climax. Britain's withdrawal from Europe and even the overall poli ...
         

      Sterling's short-term sharp fluctuations have become almost normal in recent months, but last week's situation brought them back to a climax. Britain's withdrawal from Europe and even the overall political situation has become increasingly volatile. Some have described Britain as experiencing the most chaotic period of the peace era, and the "enemy" of economic uncertainty is doomed to continue shaking financial markets.
At the beginning of this week, the foreign exchange market was in a state of tight waiting, and people were nervous about the British Parliament's vote on the withdrawal agreement scheduled for Tuesday (December 11).
At the end of November, after more than a year of negotiation, Britain and the European Union finally reached a withdrawal agreement, but the agreement needs a vote in the British Parliament before it can enter into force. Because the British government, led by British Prime Minister Teresa Mei, is involved in the negotiations, but whether the outcome of the negotiations is recognized or not is also decided by the members elected by the British people. Therefore, the importance of this vote can even be compared with the referendum on withdrawal from Europe in 2016. The latter is the cause, the former is the result.
For this vote, all sides are well prepared. Brokers have announced measures to guard against position tensions following the 2016 referendum. Dugorby Bank confirmed on Friday that it would set the upper limit of UK stock index leverage at 30:1. On Monday, Samboo Bank's Japanese branch announced a similar policy. The company's statement said it would raise margin requirements for all major Sterling currencies from 2.5% to 4%, reducing the leverage cap from 40:1 to 25:1. FxPro also announced a 2% increase in margin requirements for European stock indexes from 10:00 a.m. Monday. FxPro also said it would reserve the right to prevent traders from opening new positions after the withdrawal declaration if necessary.
In fact, the results of the voting have been generally expected at this time. According to the information learnt and published by the major British media, Aunt May's chances of winning are weak. The British Parliament originally had great differences on the form of withdrawal from Europe. The withdrawal faction advocated a "one-size-fits-all" break with the European Union, while the remaining faction advocated "as much as possible". For this agreement, the Europeans suspected that it was not strong enough, and the Europeans suspected that it was not peaceful enough, and the outcome was predictable. Aunt May has been running around the country since she returned to Britain from the EU summit in November, trying to pressure parliamentarians with the voice of the people, but it has proved futile.
Unexpectedly, the ill-behaved Aunt May was unwilling to concede. She cancelled the vote at the last minute and announced that she would return to the European Union to negotiate terms of agreement that would satisfy more parliamentarians.
This led to a sharp drop in the pound. The market may have anticipated the result of the vote failure, but Aunt May's temporary change of opinion shows that the actual number of MPs opposing the agreement is more than expected.
In addition to the pound's plunge, what is even more surprising is that it has led to subsequent turmoil.
There is no chaos but more chaos.
Maybe Aunt May herself did not realize that the decision to cancel the vote on the withdrawal agreement led to another more difficult vote, in which 48 Conservative MPs submitted letters of distrust of the Prime Minister, triggering a vote of distrust of her by Conservative MPs. In fact, there were rumors of a vote in early November, when the British government announced the version of the withdrawal agreement, which was prone to soft withdrawal, caused dissatisfaction among the Tories'withdrawal MPs, but the number of people questioning Aunt Mae's leadership did not reach the 48 needed to trigger the agreement. And Aunt Mei has angered more members of her party about the day-to-day change in the parliamentary vote on the withdrawal agreement.
The last such incident in Britain occurred 15 years ago when Ian Duncan Smith was ousted from office by a vote of no confidence for the opposition Conservative Party. The most impressive one happened in Mrs. Thatcher's era, when the Iron Lady withdrew from the political arena because of her mistrust of voting.
The vote took place at a critical moment for Britain to withdraw from Europe, adding to the chaos. The pound, which had been reignited by Aunt May's incessant drive to Europe to lobby, fell again to a new low in 2018.
On Wednesday, Aunt May was forced to stop her trip to Europe and return to Britain. In her speech before the vote, she was very ambitious. "I will do everything I can to fight for this vote." In the end, Aunt Mei won by a vote of 200:117 and ensured that her leadership in the party would not be challenged within a year.
In the meantime, many Conservative MPs chose to support Aunt Mae's continuation of her term of office, considering that once Britain temporarily changed its prime minister, it would have to postpone or even cancel her withdrawal from Europe. Aunt May also promised to resign before the next British election in 2022.
However, few people regard this result as a good thing. Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee responsible for the vote of no confidence (one of the British Parliament's caucuses, which is the organization responsible for the vote), received a long applause when he announced that the result of the vote was the Prime Minister's continued confidence in the majority of MPs, but when he announced that 117 people voted for no confidence, the attendees couldn't help exclaiming. Britain will also face a decision on the withdrawal agreement, a figure that makes the situation less optimistic. With the opposition and the opposition votes of more than 100 members of her own party, Aunt Mei has a long way to go before she wants to pass the vote in January.
It should be noted that Aunt May can exempt from leadership challenges within a year through this vote of no confidence, but this is only within the Conservative Party. If the withdrawal agreement is signed in January

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